A statistical method for migration history inference reveals alternative patterns of metastatic dissemination, clonality and phyleticity
Confirmed Presenter: Divya Koyyalagunta, Weill Cornell + MSKCC, United States
Track: MLCSB
Room: 517d
Format: In Person
Authors List: Show
- Divya Koyyalagunta, Divya Koyyalagunta, Weill Cornell + MSKCC
- Quaid Morris, Quaid Morris, MSKCC
Presentation Overview:Show
Although metastasis is the cause of 90% of cancer deaths, little is known about its clonal evolution, genetic drivers, and seeding patterns. Identifying these patterns from DNA sequencing data requires solving a challenging mixed-variable combinatorial optimization problem to reconstruct the history of metastatic migrations. Current methods, based on integer linear programs, are slow, restricted to unrealistic assumptions, and cannot report uncertainty in their reconstructions. Furthermore, a fundamental problem with these methods is their inability to choose between multiple equally or similarly likely metastatic migration histories. To address these challenges, we propose a novel statistical framework for migration history inference, Metient, which uses recent machine learning advancements in discrete variable gradient estimation and metastasis specific priors. Rather than requiring a metastatic seeding dissemination model to be known a priori, Metient aims to answer this question by evaluating all possible migration history hypotheses and choosing the best model as informed by biologically motivated data. On simulated data, Metient outperforms the state-of-the-art, and can sample up to 64 possible solutions in 1% of the time. The migration histories inferred by Metient on 167 patients with four cancer types recover expert-assigned parsimony models in 84% of cases, but find notable differences where more plausible histories are proposed. We find that parallel gains of metastatic potential are much less common than previously proposed, and that polyclonal seeding occurs more in lymph nodes than in distant metastases. Along with significantly improving existing methodology, Metient provides a means to better model metastasis across different cancer types.